Nifty & Sensex SIP Backtest — What Would You Actually Have Made?
Forward-looking calculators assume a return. This tool does the opposite: it replays history exactly as it happened. Pick an index, an amount and a window — it buys at every real monthly close and reports the result, including the crashes you would have had to sit through. Data as of: loading….
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What history actually shows
Two verified examples straight from this dataset (price index, excluding dividends):
- Sensex, full history: ₹10,000 every month from July 1997 to May 2026 meant investing about ₹34.7 lakh — and ending with roughly ₹2.62 crore, an XIRR of about 11.9% a year. On the way, the portfolio fell about 54% between December 2007 and February 2009.
- Nifty 50, from October 2007 (one of the worst possible start dates, right before the global financial crisis): a ₹10,000 monthly SIP still compounded at about 10.5% XIRR, turning ₹22.4 lakh of instalments into about ₹65 lakh by May 2026.
That is the honest story of equity SIPs: rewarding multi-decade returns, paid for with brutal interim drawdowns. The backtest shows you both.
Methodology & limitations
- Data: monthly closing levels of the NIFTY 50 and BSE Sensex from Yahoo Finance, embedded as a dated static file (no live quotes). Verified against known historical closes (e.g. Sensex 8,891.61 at end-Feb 2009; Nifty 8,597.75 at end-Mar 2020).
- SIP mechanics: the instalment is invested at each month's close; the final value is marked at the last close in your window, so the last instalment earns no return — a deliberately conservative convention.
- Price index only: dividends are excluded. Total-return versions of these indices earned roughly 1–1.5 percentage points more per year.
- No costs or taxes: real-world index funds add expense ratios and tracking error; redemptions attract capital-gains tax.
- Start-date sensitivity: results change a lot with the window you pick — that sensitivity is itself the lesson, not a flaw.
FAQs
What data does this backtest calculator use?
Real monthly closing levels of the NIFTY 50 (from October 2007) and BSE Sensex (from July 1997), sourced from Yahoo Finance and embedded as a dated dataset. Every computation runs in your browser on actual historical closes — nothing is simulated.
What has a Sensex SIP actually returned historically?
In this dataset, ₹10,000 a month from July 1997 to May 2026 invested about ₹34.7 lakh and grew to roughly ₹2.62 crore — about 11.9% XIRR before dividends. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Does the backtest include dividends?
No — it uses the price index. Historically dividends added roughly 1–1.5 percentage points a year for these indices, so true total returns were somewhat higher than shown. We say this plainly rather than inflating numbers.
What is XIRR and why does the SIP backtest use it?
XIRR is the annualised internal rate of return of dated cash flows. Each SIP instalment is invested for a different length of time, so simple CAGR misstates the return; XIRR finds the one annual rate that grows all instalments exactly to the final value. Compare with our CAGR calculator, which is for single in-and-out investments.
What is maximum drawdown?
The largest peak-to-trough fall in portfolio value during the window — e.g. a Sensex SIP fell about 54% from December 2007 to February 2009 before recovering. It is the price of admission for long-term equity returns.
Can this tool predict future returns?
No. A backtest replays one historical window; different windows give different results and the future may differ from all of them. Use it to calibrate expectations and stomach for volatility — not as a forecast. Educational content, not investment advice.
Plan forward instead: try the SIP calculator, lumpsum calculator or CAGR calculator. New to investing? Start with how to buy shares.